Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers head-to-head
Detroit Lions 62% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Lions:
- Home Field Advantage. Lions are 2-0 at home this season; Buccaneers are 1-1 on the road
- ELO Rating. Lions ELO 1544 vs Buccaneers ELO 1442 (diff: +102)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DET 56% (−6)
- If the rating edge were neutral: DET 58% (−4)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Buccaneers at Lions
The Buccaneers visit the Lions at Ford Field in Detroit, MI in NFL regular season Week 11 action.
Our model gives the Lions a 62% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. For the Buccaneers to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Lions (medium): Lions are 2-0 at home this season; Buccaneers are 1-1 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Lions (low): Lions ELO 1544 vs Buccaneers ELO 1442 (diff: +102)
- Defensive Efficiency is neutral: Defensive efficiency stats not yet available
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Detroit Lions
- ELO RatingFavors Detroit Lions
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Buccaneers
Lions
Learn About Our Analysis
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NFL Win Probability
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Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Detroit Lions
- Previous game51%DET win probability
- Next game57%DET win probability
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Other Week 11 games
- 57%HOU win probability
- 60%DAL win probability
- 51%NYG win probability
- 62%KC win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Lions has a 62% win probability, while Buccaneers has a 38% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Ford Field in Detroit, MI.