Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts head-to-head
Houston Texans 57% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Texans:
- ELO Rating. Texans ELO 1541 vs Colts ELO 1431 (diff: +110)
- Home Field Advantage. Texans are 0-3 at home this season; Colts are 1-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: HOU 53% (−4)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: HOU 56% (−1)
Win probability movement
HOU home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Colts at Texans
The Colts visit the Texans at Reliant Stadium in Houston, TX in NFL regular season Week 11 action.
Our model gives the Texans a 57% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Colts to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Texans (low): Texans ELO 1541 vs Colts ELO 1431 (diff: +110)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Texans (low): Texans are 0-3 at home this season; Colts are 1-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Rest Days is neutral: Rest day data not available for this matchup
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Houston Texans
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Houston Texans
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.
Key Players
Colts
Texans
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Houston Texans
- Previous game62%JAX win probability
- Next game51%HOU win probability
Indianapolis Colts
- Previous game54%IND win probability
- Next game58%IND win probability
Other Week 11 games
- 60%DAL win probability
- 51%NYG win probability
- 62%DET win probability
- 62%KC win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Texans has a 57% win probability, while Colts has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Reliant Stadium in Houston, TX.