Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans
Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans head-to-head
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: HOU 52% (+1)
- If the rating edge were neutral: HOU 51% (0)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Ravens at Texans
The Ravens visit the Texans at Reliant Stadium in Houston, TX in NFL regular season Week 12 action.
Our model gives the Texans a 51% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Ravens to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Ravens (low): Texans are 0-3 at home this season; Ravens are 3-1 on the road
- ELO Rating is neutral: Texans ELO 1541 vs Ravens ELO 1535 (diff: +5)
- Defensive Efficiency is neutral: Defensive efficiency stats not yet available
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Baltimore Ravens
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.
Key Players
Ravens
Texans
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Houston Texans
- Previous game62%JAX win probability
- Next game56%PIT win probability
Baltimore Ravens
- Previous game57%BAL win probability
- Next game59%BAL win probability
Other Week 12 games
- 54%LAR win probability
- 57%DET win probability
- 50%PHI win probability
- 57%BUF win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Texans has a 51% win probability, while Ravens has a 49% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Reliant Stadium in Houston, TX.