Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons vs Kansas City Chiefs head-to-head
Kansas City Chiefs 55% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Chiefs:
- ELO Rating. Falcons ELO 1417 vs Chiefs ELO 1534 (diff: -117)
- Home Field Advantage. Falcons are 0-3 at home this season; Chiefs are 2-0 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: KC 50% (−5)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: KC 53% (−2)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Chiefs at Falcons
The Chiefs visit the Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA in NFL regular season Week 10 action.
Our model gives the Chiefs a 55% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Falcons to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Chiefs (low): Falcons ELO 1417 vs Chiefs ELO 1534 (diff: -117)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Chiefs (low): Falcons are 0-3 at home this season; Chiefs are 2-0 on the road
- Recent Form is neutral: Insufficient games for recent form analysis
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Kansas City Chiefs
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Kansas City Chiefs
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Chiefs
Falcons
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Atlanta Falcons
- Previous game53%CHI win probability
- Next game64%MIN win probability
Kansas City Chiefs
Other Week 10 games
- 57%NYG win probability
- 58%DET win probability
- 53%CLE win probability
- 58%IND win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Falcons has a 45% win probability, while Chiefs has a 55% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA.