Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins head-to-head
Indianapolis Colts 58% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Colts:
- Home Field Advantage. Colts are 1-2 at home this season; Dolphins are 0-3 on the road
- ELO Rating. Colts ELO 1431 vs Dolphins ELO 1408 (diff: +22)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: IND 53% (−5)
- If the rating edge were neutral: IND 57% (−1)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Dolphins at Colts
The Dolphins visit the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN in NFL regular season Week 10 action.
Our model gives the Colts a 58% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Dolphins to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Colts (medium): Colts are 1-2 at home this season; Dolphins are 0-3 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Colts (low): Colts ELO 1431 vs Dolphins ELO 1408 (diff: +22)
- Offensive Efficiency is neutral: Offensive efficiency stats not yet available
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Indianapolis Colts
- ELO RatingFavors Indianapolis Colts
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Dolphins
Colts
Learn About Our Analysis
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NFL Win Probability
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Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Indianapolis Colts
- Previous game54%IND win probability
- Next game57%HOU win probability
Miami Dolphins
- Previous game56%CIN win probability
- Next game65%BUF win probability
Other Week 10 games
- 57%NYG win probability
- 58%DET win probability
- 55%KC win probability
- 53%CLE win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Colts has a 58% win probability, while Dolphins has a 42% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN.