PlayDecoded
Menu
NFL2026 season

Detroit Lions vs New England Patriots

Head-to-head win probability for NFL. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.

Next meeting

Sun, Nov 15, 2026

Lions logo
DET
Detroit Lions
Upcoming
Patriots logo
NE
New England Patriots
DET 58%42% NE
Open the game page

This season

2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.

Model record on this matchup

Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.

Hit rate
—
No decided games this season
Meetings graded
0
2026
Correct calls
0
Favorite won

Factor comparison

Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.

Detroit Lions
  • Home Field Advantage — Lions are 2-0 at home this season; Patriots are 1-3 on the road
New England Patriots
  • ELO Rating — Lions ELO 1544 vs Patriots ELO 1585 (diff: -41)

Get the weekly model report card

Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.