New England Patriots at Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions vs New England Patriots head-to-head
Detroit Lions 58% to win. The biggest signal favoring Lions:
- Home Field Advantage. Lions are 2-0 at home this season; Patriots are 1-3 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DET 50% (−8)
- If the rating edge were neutral: DET 59% (+1)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Patriots at Lions
The Patriots visit the Lions at FC Bayern Munich Stadium in Munich, in NFL regular season Week 10 action.
Our model gives the Lions a 58% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Patriots to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Lions (high): Lions are 2-0 at home this season; Patriots are 1-3 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Patriots (low): Lions ELO 1544 vs Patriots ELO 1585 (diff: -41)
- Weather Impact is neutral: Weather data not available
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Detroit Lions
- ELO RatingFavors New England Patriots
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
Home Field Advantage
Lions are 2-0 at home this season; Patriots are 1-3 on the road
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Patriots
Lions
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Detroit Lions
- Previous game51%DET win probability
- Next game62%DET win probability
New England Patriots
Other Week 10 games
- 57%NYG win probability
- 55%KC win probability
- 53%CLE win probability
- 58%IND win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Lions has a 58% win probability, while Patriots has a 42% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at FC Bayern Munich Stadium in Munich.