Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings head-to-head
Green Bay Packers 50% to win. The biggest signal favoring Packers:
- Home Field Advantage. Packers are 2-1 at home this season; Vikings are 3-0 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: GB 53% (+3)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: GB 49% (−1)
Win probability movement
GB home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Vikings at Packers
The Vikings visit the Packers at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI in NFL regular season Week 10 action.
Our model gives the Packers a 50% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Vikings to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Vikings (low): Packers ELO 1529 vs Vikings ELO 1602 (diff: -73)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Packers (low): Packers are 2-1 at home this season; Vikings are 3-0 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Rest Days is neutral: Rest day data not available for this matchup
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Minnesota Vikings
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Green Bay Packers
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Vikings
Packers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings
Other Week 10 games
- 57%NYG win probability
- 58%DET win probability
- 55%KC win probability
- 53%CLE win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Packers has a 50% win probability, while Vikings has a 50% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI.