Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers
Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers head-to-head
San Francisco 49ers 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring 49ers:
- Home Field Advantage. 49ers are 4-0 at home this season; Vikings are 3-0 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: SF 52% (−3)
- If the rating edge were neutral: SF 55% (0)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Vikings at 49ers
The Vikings visit the 49ers at Estadio Banorte in Mexico City, in NFL regular season Week 11 action.
Our model gives the 49ers a 55% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Vikings to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the 49ers (medium): 49ers are 4-0 at home this season; Vikings are 3-0 on the road
- ELO Rating is neutral: 49ers ELO 1596 vs Vikings ELO 1602 (diff: -5)
- Turnover Differential is neutral: 49ers turnover differential (+0) vs Vikings (+0)
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors San Francisco 49ers
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.
Key Players
Vikings
49ers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
San Francisco 49ers
Minnesota Vikings
- Previous game51%MIN win probability
- Next game64%MIN win probability
Other Week 11 games
- 57%HOU win probability
- 60%DAL win probability
- 51%NYG win probability
- 62%DET win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
49ers has a 55% win probability, while Vikings has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Estadio Banorte in Mexico City.