New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs vs New York Jets head-to-head
Kansas City Chiefs 64% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Chiefs:
- Home Field Advantage. Chiefs are 3-0 at home this season; Jets are 1-3 on the road
- ELO Rating. Chiefs ELO 1534 vs Jets ELO 1403 (diff: +131)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: KC 57% (−7)
- If the rating edge were neutral: KC 59% (−5)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Jets at Chiefs
The Jets visit the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO in NFL regular season Week 9 action.
Our model gives the Chiefs a 64% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. For the Jets to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Chiefs (high): Chiefs are 3-0 at home this season; Jets are 1-3 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Chiefs (medium): Chiefs ELO 1534 vs Jets ELO 1403 (diff: +131)
- Weather Impact is neutral: Weather data not available
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Kansas City Chiefs
- ELO RatingFavors Kansas City Chiefs
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
Home Field Advantage
Chiefs are 3-0 at home this season; Jets are 1-3 on the road
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Jets
No player data available
Chiefs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Kansas City Chiefs
New York Jets
- Previous game52%NYJ win probability
- Next game56%BUF win probability
Other Week 9 games
- 59%JAX win probability
- 53%CIN win probability
- 62%PHI win probability
- 54%IND win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Chiefs has a 64% win probability, while Jets has a 36% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO.