Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts
Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts head-to-head
Indianapolis Colts 54% to win. The biggest signal favoring Colts:
- Home Field Advantage. Colts are 1-2 at home this season; Cowboys are 1-2 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: IND 51% (−3)
- If the rating edge were neutral: IND 55% (+1)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Cowboys at Colts
The Cowboys visit the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN in NFL regular season Week 9 action.
Our model gives the Colts a 54% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Cowboys to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Colts (medium): Colts are 1-2 at home this season; Cowboys are 1-2 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Cowboys (low): Colts ELO 1431 vs Cowboys ELO 1460 (diff: -29)
- Turnover Differential is neutral: Colts turnover differential (+0) vs Cowboys (+0)
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Indianapolis Colts
- ELO RatingFavors Dallas Cowboys
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Cowboys
Colts
Learn About Our Analysis
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NFL Win Probability
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Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Indianapolis Colts
- Previous game54%IND win probability
- Next game58%IND win probability
Dallas Cowboys
Other Week 9 games
- 59%JAX win probability
- 53%CIN win probability
- 64%KC win probability
- 62%PHI win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Colts has a 54% win probability, while Cowboys has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN.