Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens vs Jacksonville Jaguars head-to-head
Jacksonville Jaguars 59% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Jaguars:
- Injuries. Jaguars healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Ravens 4 out, 0 doubtful
- ELO Rating. Ravens ELO 1535 vs Jaguars ELO 1568 (diff: -33)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the injury edge were neutral: JAX 46% (−13)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: JAX 62% (+3)
- If the rating edge were neutral: JAX 58% (−1)
Win probability movement
BAL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Jaguars at Ravens
The Jaguars visit the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD in NFL regular season Week 9 action.
Our model gives the Jaguars a 59% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Ravens to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Injuries favors the Jaguars (high): Jaguars healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Ravens 4 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favors the Ravens (medium): Ravens are 1-1 at home this season; Jaguars are 1-1 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Jaguars (low): Ravens ELO 1535 vs Jaguars ELO 1568 (diff: -33)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Ravens have 4 player(s) ruled out, while the Jaguars have 1.
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Jacksonville Jaguars
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Baltimore Ravens
- ELO RatingFavors Jacksonville Jaguars
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Jaguars healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Ravens 4 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.
Injury Report
Ravens
Jaguars
Key Players
Jaguars
Ravens
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Baltimore Ravens
- Previous game57%BAL win probability
- Next game60%BAL win probability
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Previous game62%JAX win probability
- Next game57%JAX win probability
Other Week 9 games
- 53%CIN win probability
- 64%KC win probability
- 62%PHI win probability
- 54%IND win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Ravens has a 41% win probability, while Jaguars has a 59% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD.