NFL
NFL surprises: lower-rated teams that won
2026 season. Finished games where the team the model rated lower before kickoff won. Ranked by that winner's pre-game win probability, lowest first. Only games with a real pre-game assessment are listed.
The model's favourite has won 33 of 61 decided games this season (54.1%). Same rules as the accuracy page; preseason is excluded.
This week
No surprises this week. Either the model's favourite won every finished game, or no finished game has a pre-game assessment yet.
Season list
| Date | Matchup | Winner pre-game | Final | Top factor for the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 25 | ATL at GB Falcons at Packers | ATL 24.2% | GB 14–ATL 35 | Injuries Packers healthier (5 out, 0 doubtful) vs Falcons (7 out, 0 doubtful) |
| Sun, Oct 18 | ARI at LAR Cardinals at Rams | ARI 27.0% | LAR 16–ARI 18 | Injuries Rams healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Cardinals 8 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sun, Oct 4 | NE at BUF Patriots at Bills | NE 32.3% | BUF 26–NE 29 | Injuries Bills healthier: 8 out, 0 doubtful vs Patriots 9 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sun, Oct 4 | DAL at HOU Cowboys at Texans | DAL 32.8% | HOU 30–DAL 34 | Injuries Texans healthier: 8 out, 0 doubtful vs Cowboys 11 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sun, Oct 18 | PIT at TB Steelers at Buccaneers | PIT 33.3% | TB 19–PIT 26 | Injuries Buccaneers healthier: 8 out, 0 doubtful vs Steelers 10 out, 0 doubtful |
| Tue, Oct 13 | BUF at LAR Bills at Rams | BUF 34.5% | LAR 34–BUF 37 | Injuries Rams healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Bills 7 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sun, Oct 18 | HOU at JAX Texans at Jaguars | HOU 38.0% | JAX 31–HOU 34 | Home Field Advantage Jaguars are 3-0 at home this season; Texans are 1-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage) |
| Sun, Oct 4 | IND at WSH Colts at Commanders | IND 38.4% | WSH 13–IND 30 | Home Field Advantage Commanders are 1-0 at home this season; Colts are 0-1 on the road |
| Sun, Sep 27 | CIN at PIT Bengals at Steelers | PIT 39.7% | PIT 30–CIN 27 | Injuries Bengals healthier (7 out, 0 doubtful) vs Steelers (8 out, 0 doubtful) |
| Sun, Oct 4 | NYJ at CHI Jets at Bears | CHI 41.6% | CHI 23–NYJ 12 | Injuries Jets healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Bears 11 out, 0 doubtful |
| Fri, Oct 9 | TB at DAL Buccaneers at Cowboys | TB 41.8% | DAL 16–TB 24 | Home Field Advantage Cowboys are 1-1 at home this season; Buccaneers are 0-1 on the road |
| Sun, Sep 27 | HOU at IND Texans at Colts | IND 41.8% | IND 19–HOU 17 | Injuries Texans healthier (9 out, 0 doubtful) vs Colts (8 out, 0 doubtful) |
| Sun, Oct 4 | JAX at CIN Jaguars at Bengals | JAX 42.4% | CIN 17–JAX 22 | Home Field Advantage Bengals are 1-0 at home this season; Jaguars are 0-1 on the road |
| Sun, Oct 18 | NO at NYG Saints at Giants | NO 43.3% | NYG 27–NO 34 | Home Field Advantage Giants are 3-0 at home this season; Saints are 1-1 on the road |
| Sun, Oct 18 | BAL at CLE Ravens at Browns | CLE 43.4% | CLE 13–BAL 10 | Injuries Ravens healthier: 7 out, 0 doubtful vs Browns 10 out, 0 doubtful |
| Mon, Sep 28 | LAR at DEN Rams at Broncos | DEN 44.0% | DEN 30–LAR 26 | Injuries Rams healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Broncos 8 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sun, Sep 27 | BAL at DAL Ravens at Cowboys | BAL 44.8% | DAL 31–BAL 34 | Home Field Advantage Cowboys are 1-0 at home this season; Ravens are 1-0 on the road |
| Sun, Sep 27 | TEN at NYG Titans at Giants | NYG 45.2% | NYG 12–TEN 7 | Injuries Titans healthier (5 out, 0 doubtful) vs Giants (8 out, 0 doubtful) |
| Sun, Sep 27 | NYJ at DET Jets at Lions | DET 45.8% | DET 31–NYJ 24 | Injuries Jets healthier (0 out, 0 doubtful) vs Lions (8 out, 0 doubtful) |
| Sun, Oct 18 | TEN at IND Titans at Colts | TEN 45.9% | IND 20–TEN 26 | Home Field Advantage Colts are 1-1 at home this season; Titans are 0-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage) |
| Sun, Sep 27 | MIN at TB Vikings at Buccaneers | MIN 46.6% | TB 16–MIN 23 | Injuries Buccaneers healthier: 6 out, 0 doubtful vs Vikings 8 out, 0 doubtful |
| Mon, Oct 5 | DET at CAR Lions at Panthers | CAR 47.4% | CAR 32–DET 26 | Injuries Lions less affected by injuries: 10 out, 0 doubtful vs Panthers 9 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Panthers players matter more |
| Sun, Oct 18 | NYJ at NE Jets at Patriots | NE 48.2% | NE 26–NYJ 19 | Injuries Jets healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Patriots 7 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sun, Oct 11 | SF at SEA 49ers at Seahawks | SF 48.7% | SEA 29–SF 32 | Home Field Advantage Seahawks are 2-0 at home this season; 49ers are 1-0 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage) |
| Sun, Oct 11 | IND at PIT Colts at Steelers | PIT 49.0% | PIT 34–IND 22 | Injuries Colts healthier: 7 out, 0 doubtful vs Steelers 10 out, 0 doubtful |
| Mon, Oct 19 | DAL at GB Cowboys at Packers | GB 49.0% | GB 23–DAL 13 | Injuries Cowboys healthier: 7 out, 0 doubtful vs Packers 10 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sun, Oct 11 | HOU at TEN Texans at Titans | HOU 49.3% | TEN 3–HOU 26 | Injuries Titans healthier: 8 out, 0 doubtful vs Texans 10 out, 0 doubtful |
| Tue, Sep 29 | PHI at CHI Eagles at Bears | CHI 49.7% | CHI 27–PHI 7 | Home Field Advantage Bears are 0-1 at home this season; Eagles are 1-0 on the road |
Showing 1–28 of 28 surprises