Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders 62% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Commanders:
- Home Field Advantage. Commanders are 1-0 at home this season; Colts are 0-1 on the road
- Injuries. Commanders less affected by injuries: 8 out, 0 doubtful vs Colts 8 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Colts players matter more
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Colts at Commanders
The Colts visit the Commanders at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, in NFL regular season Week 4 action.
Our model gives the Commanders a 62% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. The Colts will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Commanders (high): Commanders are 1-0 at home this season; Colts are 0-1 on the road
- Injuries favors the Commanders (low): Commanders less affected by injuries: 8 out, 0 doubtful vs Colts 8 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Colts players mat...
- ELO Rating is neutral: Commanders ELO 1424 vs Colts ELO 1431 (diff: -6)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Commanders have 8 player(s) ruled out, while the Colts have 8.
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Washington Commanders
- InjuriesFavors Washington Commanders
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Commanders
Colts
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
Home Field Advantage
Commanders are 1-0 at home this season; Colts are 0-1 on the road
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Commanders
Colts
Key Players
Colts
Commanders
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Commanders has a 62% win probability, while Colts has a 38% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.