Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders 58% to win. The biggest signal favoring Commanders:
- Home Field Advantage. Commanders are 1-0 at home this season; Colts are 0-1 on the road
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Colts defeated the Commanders 30-13.
Our model predicted the Commanders would win with 58% confidence, but the Colts pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Commanders and was a major factor: Commanders are 1-0 at home this season; Colts are 0-1 on the road
- Injuries favored the Colts and was a contributing factor: Colts less affected by injuries: 8 out, 0 doubtful vs Commanders 8 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Commanders player...
- ELO Rating was neutral and a contributing factor: Commanders ELO 1424 vs Colts ELO 1431 (diff: -6)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Commanders have 8 player(s) ruled out, while the Colts have 8.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Colts won convincingly
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Washington Commanders
- InjuriesFavors Indianapolis Colts
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Commanders
Colts
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
Home Field Advantage
Commanders are 1-0 at home this season; Colts are 0-1 on the road
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Commanders
Colts
Key Players
Colts
Commanders
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Commanders has a 58% win probability, while Colts has a 42% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.