Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Commanders
Cincinnati Bengals vs Washington Commanders head-to-head
Washington Commanders 50% to win. The biggest signal favoring Commanders:
- Home Field Advantage. Commanders are 1-1 at home this season; Bengals are 2-1 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: WSH 54% (+4)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: WSH 48% (−2)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Bengals at Commanders
The Bengals visit the Commanders at Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD in NFL regular season Week 11 action.
Our model gives the Commanders a 50% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Bengals to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Bengals (low): Commanders ELO 1424 vs Bengals ELO 1527 (diff: -102)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Commanders (low): Commanders are 1-1 at home this season; Bengals are 2-1 on the road
- Rest Days is neutral: Rest day data not available for this matchup
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Cincinnati Bengals
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Washington Commanders
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Bengals
Commanders
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Washington Commanders
- Previous game58%SF win probability
- Next game55%ARI win probability
Cincinnati Bengals
- Previous game56%CIN win probability
- Next game57%CIN win probability
Other Week 11 games
- 57%HOU win probability
- 60%DAL win probability
- 51%NYG win probability
- 62%DET win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Commanders has a 50% win probability, while Bengals has a 50% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD.