Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals vs Washington Commanders head-to-head
Arizona Cardinals 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Cardinals:
- Home Field Advantage. Cardinals are 0-2 at home this season; Commanders are 0-3 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ARI 51% (−4)
- If the rating edge were neutral: ARI 55% (0)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Commanders at Cardinals
The Commanders visit the Cardinals at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ in NFL regular season Week 12 action.
Our model gives the Cardinals a 55% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Commanders to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Cardinals (medium): Cardinals are 0-2 at home this season; Commanders are 0-3 on the road
- ELO Rating is neutral: Cardinals ELO 1412 vs Commanders ELO 1424 (diff: -12)
- Turnover Differential is neutral: Cardinals turnover differential (+0) vs Commanders (+0)
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Arizona Cardinals
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Commanders
Cardinals
Learn About Our Analysis
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NFL Win Probability
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Home Field Advantage
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Arizona Cardinals
- Previous game73%LAR win probability
- Next game53%PHI win probability
Washington Commanders
- Previous game58%SF win probability
- Next game51%TEN win probability
Other Week 12 games
- 54%LAR win probability
- 57%DET win probability
- 50%PHI win probability
- 57%BUF win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Cardinals has a 55% win probability, while Commanders has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ.