New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals vs New Orleans Saints head-to-head
Cincinnati Bengals 57% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Bengals:
- ELO Rating. Bengals ELO 1527 vs Saints ELO 1461 (diff: +66)
- Home Field Advantage. Bengals are 1-1 at home this season; Saints are 2-1 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: CIN 54% (−3)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CIN 54% (−3)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Saints at Bengals
The Saints visit the Bengals at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH in NFL regular season Week 12 action.
Our model gives the Bengals a 57% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Saints to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Bengals (low): Bengals ELO 1527 vs Saints ELO 1461 (diff: +66)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Bengals (low): Bengals are 1-1 at home this season; Saints are 2-1 on the road
- Turnover Differential is neutral: Bengals turnover differential (+0) vs Saints (+0)
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Cincinnati Bengals
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Cincinnati Bengals
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.
Key Players
Saints
Bengals
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Cincinnati Bengals
- Previous game56%CIN win probability
- Next game52%CLE win probability
New Orleans Saints
Other Week 12 games
- 54%LAR win probability
- 57%DET win probability
- 50%PHI win probability
- 57%BUF win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Bengals has a 57% win probability, while Saints has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH.