Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints
Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints head-to-head
Green Bay Packers 51% to win. The biggest signal favoring Packers:
- ELO Rating. Saints ELO 1461 vs Packers ELO 1529 (diff: -68)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: GB 49% (−2)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: GB 51% (0)
Win probability movement
NO home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Packers at Saints
The Packers visit the Saints at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA in NFL regular season Week 13 action.
Our model gives the Packers a 51% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Saints to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Packers (low): Saints ELO 1461 vs Packers ELO 1529 (diff: -68)
- Home Field Advantage is neutral: Saints are 0-3 at home this season; Packers are 2-1 on the road
- Weather Impact is neutral: Weather data not available
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Green Bay Packers
- Home Field AdvantageNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Packers
Saints
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
New Orleans Saints
Green Bay Packers
Other Week 13 games
- 52%LAR win probability
- 52%CLE win probability
- 51%DET win probability
- 54%TB win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Saints has a 49% win probability, while Packers has a 51% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA.