Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Commanders:
- Injuries. Commanders healthier: 6 out, 0 doubtful vs Seahawks 9 out, 0 doubtful
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Commanders defeated the Seahawks 33-31.
Our model predicted the Commanders would win with 53% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Commanders and was a notable factor: Commanders healthier: 6 out, 0 doubtful vs Seahawks 9 out, 0 doubtful
- ELO Rating favored the Seahawks and was a notable factor: Commanders ELO 1424 vs Seahawks ELO 1661 (diff: -237)
- Home Field Advantage was neutral and a contributing factor: First home game of the season for Commanders; Seahawks are 1-0 on the road
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Commanders have 6 player(s) ruled out, while the Seahawks have 9.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Commanders won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Washington Commanders
- ELO RatingFavors Seattle Seahawks
- Home Field AdvantageNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Commanders
Seahawks
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Seahawks
Commanders
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Commanders has a 53% win probability, while Seahawks has a 48% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD.