Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers 76% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Packers:
- Injuries. Packers healthier (5 out, 0 doubtful) vs Falcons (7 out, 0 doubtful)
- Home Field Advantage. First home game of the season for Packers; Falcons are 0-1 on the road
- ELO Rating. Packers ELO 1529 vs Falcons ELO 1417 (diff: +112)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Falcons defeated the Packers 35-14.
Our model predicted the Packers would win with 76% confidence, but the Falcons pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Packers and was a major factor: Packers healthier (5 out, 0 doubtful) vs Falcons (7 out, 0 doubtful)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Packers and was a notable factor: First home game of the season for Packers; Falcons are 0-1 on the road
- ELO Rating favored the Packers and was a contributing factor: Packers ELO 1529 vs Falcons ELO 1417 (diff: +112)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Packers have 5 player(s) ruled out, while the Falcons have 7.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Falcons won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Green Bay Packers
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Green Bay Packers
- ELO RatingFavors Green Bay Packers
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Packers healthier (5 out, 0 doubtful) vs Falcons (7 out, 0 doubtful)
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Falcons
Packers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Packers has a 76% win probability, while Falcons has a 24% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI.