Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals 59% to win. The biggest signal favoring Bengals:
- Injuries. Bengals healthier: 7 out, 0 doubtful vs Steelers 8 out, 0 doubtful
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Steelers defeated the Bengals 30-27.
Our model predicted the Bengals would win with 59% confidence, but the Steelers pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Bengals and was a major factor: Bengals healthier: 7 out, 0 doubtful vs Steelers 8 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favored the Steelers and was a contributing factor: Steelers are 1-0 at home this season; Bengals are 1-0 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating was neutral and a contributing factor: Steelers ELO 1517 vs Bengals ELO 1527 (diff: -10)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Steelers have 8 player(s) ruled out, while the Bengals have 7.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Steelers won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Cincinnati Bengals
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Pittsburgh Steelers
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Steelers
Bengals
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Bengals healthier: 7 out, 0 doubtful vs Steelers 8 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Bengals
Steelers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Steelers has a 41% win probability, while Bengals has a 59% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA.