NFL week 3 report card (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
43.8%
hit rate
0.260
Brier score
7 of 16 decided
Season to date
54.1%
hit rate
0.252
Brier score
33 of 61 decided · 1 tie
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Falcons at PackersGB 75.8% pre-kickoff — final GB 14–ATL 35
- Bengals at SteelersCIN 60.3% pre-kickoff — final PIT 30–CIN 27
- Texans at ColtsHOU 58.2% pre-kickoff — final IND 19–HOU 17
- Rams at BroncosLAR 56.0% pre-kickoff — final DEN 30–LAR 26
- Ravens at CowboysDAL 55.2% pre-kickoff — final DAL 31–BAL 34
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Chargers at BillsBUF 73.7% pre-kickoff — final BUF 24–LAC 16
- Patriots at JaguarsJAX 70.1% pre-kickoff — final JAX 35–NE 6
- Chiefs at DolphinsKC 65.2% pre-kickoff — final MIA 10–KC 24
- Panthers at BrownsCLE 61.6% pre-kickoff — final CLE 21–CAR 18
- Seahawks at CommandersWSH 52.5% pre-kickoff — final WSH 33–SEA 31
| Game | Pre-kickoff | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons at Packers Fri, Sep 25 | GB 75.8% · ATL 24.2% | GB 14–ATL 35 | Miss |
| Titans at Giants Sun, Sep 27 | NYG 45.2% · TEN 54.8% | NYG 12–TEN 7 | Miss |
| Chargers at Bills Sun, Sep 27 | BUF 73.7% · LAC 26.3% | BUF 24–LAC 16 | Hit |
| Bengals at Steelers Sun, Sep 27 | PIT 39.7% · CIN 60.3% | PIT 30–CIN 27 | Miss |
| Seahawks at Commanders Sun, Sep 27 | WSH 52.5% · SEA 47.5% | WSH 33–SEA 31 | Hit |
| Chiefs at Dolphins Sun, Sep 27 | MIA 34.8% · KC 65.2% | MIA 10–KC 24 | Hit |
| Panthers at Browns Sun, Sep 27 | CLE 61.6% · CAR 38.4% | CLE 21–CAR 18 | Hit |
| Texans at Colts Sun, Sep 27 | IND 41.8% · HOU 58.2% | IND 19–HOU 17 | Miss |
| Patriots at Jaguars Sun, Sep 27 | JAX 70.1% · NE 29.9% | JAX 35–NE 6 | Hit |
| Jets at Lions Sun, Sep 27 | DET 45.8% · NYJ 54.2% | DET 31–NYJ 24 | Miss |
| Vikings at Buccaneers Sun, Sep 27 | TB 53.4% · MIN 46.6% | TB 16–MIN 23 | Miss |
| Cardinals at 49ers Sun, Sep 27 | SF 50.1% · ARI 49.9% | SF 36–ARI 30 | Hit |
| Ravens at Cowboys Sun, Sep 27 | DAL 55.2% · BAL 44.8% | DAL 31–BAL 34 | Miss |
| Raiders at Saints Sun, Sep 27 | NO 47.7% · LV 52.3% | NO 27–LV 35 | Hit |
| Rams at Broncos Mon, Sep 28 | DEN 44.0% · LAR 56.0% | DEN 30–LAR 26 | Miss |
| Eagles at Bears Tue, Sep 29 | CHI 49.7% · PHI 50.3% | CHI 27–PHI 7 | Miss |
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