New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars 71% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Jaguars:
- Injuries. Jaguars healthier: 7 out, 0 doubtful vs Patriots 10 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage. Jaguars are 1-0 at home this season; Patriots are 0-1 on the road
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Jaguars defeated the Patriots 35-6.
Our model predicted the Jaguars would win with 71% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Jaguars and was a major factor: Jaguars healthier: 7 out, 0 doubtful vs Patriots 10 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favored the Jaguars and was a major factor: Jaguars are 1-0 at home this season; Patriots are 0-1 on the road
- Rest Days favored the Patriots and was a contributing factor: Patriots has rest advantage (7 days) over Jaguars (6 days)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Jaguars have 7 player(s) ruled out, while the Patriots have 10.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Jaguars won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Jacksonville Jaguars
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Jacksonville Jaguars
- Rest DaysFavors New England Patriots
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Model vs. Market
Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Jaguars
Patriots
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Jaguars healthier: 7 out, 0 doubtful vs Patriots 10 out, 0 doubtful
Home Field Advantage
Jaguars are 1-0 at home this season; Patriots are 0-1 on the road
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Patriots
Jaguars
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Jaguars has a 71% win probability, while Patriots has a 29% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, FL.