NFL2026 season
Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots
Head-to-head win probability for NFL. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Sun, Sep 27, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
100%
1 of 1 decided games
Meetings graded
1
2026
Correct calls
1
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Injuries — Jaguars healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Colts 5 out, 0 doubtful
- ELO Rating — Jaguars ELO 1568 vs Colts ELO 1431 (diff: +138)
- Home Field Advantage — Jaguars are 3-1 at home this season; Colts are 1-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
New England Patriots
- ELO Rating — Dolphins ELO 1408 vs Patriots ELO 1585 (diff: -177)
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