Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Buccaneers:
- Injuries. Buccaneers healthier: 6 out, 0 doubtful vs Vikings 8 out, 0 doubtful
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Vikings defeated the Buccaneers 23-16.
Our model predicted the Buccaneers would win with 53% confidence, but the Vikings pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Buccaneers and was a notable factor: Buccaneers healthier: 6 out, 0 doubtful vs Vikings 8 out, 0 doubtful
- ELO Rating favored the Vikings and was a notable factor: Buccaneers ELO 1442 vs Vikings ELO 1602 (diff: -159)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Vikings and was a contributing factor: Buccaneers are 0-1 at home this season; Vikings are 1-0 on the road
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Buccaneers have 6 player(s) ruled out, while the Vikings have 8.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Vikings won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- ELO RatingFavors Minnesota Vikings
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Minnesota Vikings
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Buccaneers
Vikings
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Buccaneers
Vikings
Key Players
Vikings
Buccaneers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Buccaneers has a 53% win probability, while Vikings has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL.