Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints
Las Vegas Raiders 52% to win. The biggest signal favoring Raiders:
- Injuries. Raiders healthier: 6 out, 0 doubtful vs Saints 8 out, 0 doubtful
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Raiders defeated the Saints 35-27.
Our model predicted the Raiders would win with 52% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Raiders and was a notable factor: Raiders healthier: 6 out, 0 doubtful vs Saints 8 out, 0 doubtful
- ELO Rating favored the Saints and was a contributing factor: Saints ELO 1461 vs Raiders ELO 1415 (diff: +46)
- Home Field Advantage was neutral and a contributing factor: First home game of the season for Saints; Raiders are 1-0 on the road
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Saints have 8 player(s) ruled out, while the Raiders have 6.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Raiders won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Las Vegas Raiders
- ELO RatingFavors New Orleans Saints
- Home Field AdvantageNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Saints
Raiders
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Saints
Raiders
Key Players
Raiders
Saints
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Saints has a 48% win probability, while Raiders has a 52% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA.