New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints head-to-head
Chicago Bears 58% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Bears:
- Home Field Advantage. Bears are 3-1 at home this season; Saints are 2-1 on the road
- ELO Rating. Bears ELO 1531 vs Saints ELO 1461 (diff: +70)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CHI 54% (−4)
- If the rating edge were neutral: CHI 56% (−2)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Saints at Bears
The Saints visit the Bears at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL in NFL regular season Week 11 action.
Our model gives the Bears a 58% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Saints to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Bears (medium): Bears are 3-1 at home this season; Saints are 2-1 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Bears (low): Bears ELO 1531 vs Saints ELO 1461 (diff: +70)
- Turnover Differential is neutral: Bears turnover differential (+0) vs Saints (+0)
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Bears
- ELO RatingFavors Chicago Bears
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Saints
Bears
Learn About Our Analysis
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NFL Win Probability
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Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Chicago Bears
- Previous game55%CHI win probability
- Next game57%DET win probability
New Orleans Saints
Other Week 11 games
- 57%HOU win probability
- 60%DAL win probability
- 51%NYG win probability
- 62%DET win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Bears has a 58% win probability, while Saints has a 42% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL.