Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders head-to-head
Denver Broncos 63% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Broncos:
- ELO Rating. Broncos ELO 1598 vs Raiders ELO 1415 (diff: +183)
- Home Field Advantage. Broncos are 3-0 at home this season; Raiders are 2-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: DEN 56% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DEN 59% (−4)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Raiders at Broncos
The Raiders visit the Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO in NFL regular season Week 11 action.
Our model gives the Broncos a 63% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. For the Raiders to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Broncos (medium): Broncos ELO 1598 vs Raiders ELO 1415 (diff: +183)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Broncos (medium): Broncos are 3-0 at home this season; Raiders are 2-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form is neutral: Insufficient games for recent form analysis
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Denver Broncos
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Denver Broncos
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Raiders
Broncos
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Denver Broncos
- Previous game60%DEN win probability
- Next game56%PIT win probability
Las Vegas Raiders
Other Week 11 games
- 57%HOU win probability
- 60%DAL win probability
- 51%NYG win probability
- 62%DET win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Broncos has a 63% win probability, while Raiders has a 37% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO.