Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Houston Texans 59% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Texans:
- Injuries. Texans less affected by injuries: 9 out, 0 doubtful vs Colts 8 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Colts players matter more
- ELO Rating. Colts ELO 1431 vs Texans ELO 1541 (diff: -110)
- Rest Days. Texans has rest advantage (7 days) over Colts (6 days)
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Colts defeated the Texans 19-17.
Our model predicted the Texans would win with 59% confidence, but the Colts pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Texans and was a notable factor: Texans less affected by injuries: 9 out, 0 doubtful vs Colts 8 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Colts players matter ...
- ELO Rating favored the Texans and was a contributing factor: Colts ELO 1431 vs Texans ELO 1541 (diff: -110)
- Rest Days favored the Texans and was a contributing factor: Texans has rest advantage (7 days) over Colts (6 days)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Colts have 8 player(s) ruled out, while the Texans have 9.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Colts won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Houston Texans
- ELO RatingFavors Houston Texans
- Rest DaysFavors Houston Texans
- Home Field AdvantageNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Model vs. Market
Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Colts
Texans
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Texans
Colts
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Colts has a 41% win probability, while Texans has a 59% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN.