Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
Houston Texans 67% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Texans:
- Injuries. Texans healthier: 8 out, 0 doubtful vs Cowboys 11 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage. Texans are 0-2 at home this season; Cowboys are 0-1 on the road
- ELO Rating. Texans ELO 1541 vs Cowboys ELO 1460 (diff: +81)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Cowboys defeated the Texans 34-30.
Our model predicted the Texans would win with 67% confidence, but the Cowboys pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Texans and was a notable factor: Texans healthier: 8 out, 0 doubtful vs Cowboys 11 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favored the Texans and was a notable factor: Texans are 0-2 at home this season; Cowboys are 0-1 on the road
- ELO Rating favored the Texans and was a contributing factor: Texans ELO 1541 vs Cowboys ELO 1460 (diff: +81)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Texans have 8 player(s) ruled out, while the Cowboys have 11.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Cowboys won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Houston Texans
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Houston Texans
- ELO RatingFavors Houston Texans
- Rest DaysFavors Houston Texans
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Texans
Cowboys
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Cowboys
Texans
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Texans has a 67% win probability, while Cowboys has a 33% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Reliant Stadium in Houston, TX.