NFL week 4 report card (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
62.5%
hit rate
0.247
Brier score
10 of 16 decided
Season to date
54.1%
hit rate
0.252
Brier score
33 of 61 decided · 1 tie
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Patriots at BillsBUF 67.7% pre-kickoff — final BUF 26–NE 29
- Cowboys at TexansHOU 67.2% pre-kickoff — final HOU 30–DAL 34
- Colts at CommandersWSH 61.6% pre-kickoff — final WSH 13–IND 30
- Jets at BearsNYJ 58.4% pre-kickoff — final CHI 23–NYJ 12
- Jaguars at BengalsCIN 57.6% pre-kickoff — final CIN 17–JAX 22
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Dolphins at VikingsMIN 72.8% pre-kickoff — final MIN 15–MIA 10
- Steelers at BrownsCLE 65.9% pre-kickoff — final CLE 27–PIT 24
- Chargers at SeahawksSEA 62.6% pre-kickoff — final SEA 30–LAC 23
- Titans at RavensBAL 60.5% pre-kickoff — final BAL 24–TEN 18
- Packers at BuccaneersGB 59.4% pre-kickoff — final TB 14–GB 17
| Game | Pre-kickoff | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers at Browns Fri, Oct 2 | CLE 65.9% · PIT 34.1% | CLE 27–PIT 24 | Hit |
| Colts at Commanders Sun, Oct 4 | WSH 61.6% · IND 38.4% | WSH 13–IND 30 | Miss |
| Titans at Ravens Sun, Oct 4 | BAL 60.5% · TEN 39.5% | BAL 24–TEN 18 | Hit |
| Packers at Buccaneers Sun, Oct 4 | TB 40.6% · GB 59.4% | TB 14–GB 17 | Hit |
| Cowboys at Texans Sun, Oct 4 | HOU 67.2% · DAL 32.8% | HOU 30–DAL 34 | Miss |
| Jets at Bears Sun, Oct 4 | CHI 41.6% · NYJ 58.4% | CHI 23–NYJ 12 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Giants Sun, Oct 4 | NYG 54.8% · ARI 45.2% | NYG 36–ARI 24 | Hit |
| Rams at Eagles Sun, Oct 4 | PHI 43.9% · LAR 56.1% | PHI 20–LAR 24 | Hit |
| Patriots at Bills Sun, Oct 4 | BUF 67.7% · NE 32.3% | BUF 26–NE 29 | Miss |
| Jaguars at Bengals Sun, Oct 4 | CIN 57.6% · JAX 42.4% | CIN 17–JAX 22 | Miss |
| Dolphins at Vikings Sun, Oct 4 | MIN 72.8% · MIA 27.2% | MIN 15–MIA 10 | Hit |
| Broncos at 49ers Sun, Oct 4 | SF 52.2% · DEN 47.8% | SF 24–DEN 14 | Hit |
| Chiefs at Raiders Sun, Oct 4 | LV 45.6% · KC 54.4% | LV 27–KC 30 | Hit |
| Chargers at Seahawks Sun, Oct 4 | SEA 62.6% · LAC 37.4% | SEA 30–LAC 23 | Hit |
| Lions at Panthers Mon, Oct 5 | CAR 47.4% · DET 52.6% | CAR 32–DET 26 | Miss |
| Falcons at Saints Tue, Oct 6 | NO 48.3% · ATL 51.7% | NO 24–ATL 45 | Hit |
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