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Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers

NFLWeek 4 • regular • 2026
Scheduled
49ers logo
49ers
San Francisco
0
vs
Broncos logo
Broncos
Denver
0
SF 52%48% DEN
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

San Francisco 49ers 52% to win. The top 2 signals favoring 49ers:

  • Home Field Advantage. 49ers are 2-0 at home this season; Broncos are 0-1 on the road
  • Rest Days. 49ers has rest advantage (7 days) over Broncos (6 days)

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VenueLevi's Stadium
Santa Clara, CA

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Broncos (away)
49ers (home)
48%
Win probability
52%
0
High-impact factors
1
2
Players ruled out
4

Game Preview

Broncos at 49ers

The Broncos visit the 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA in NFL regular season Week 4 action.

Our model gives the 49ers a 52% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. The Broncos will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.

Key factors driving this prediction:

  • Injuries favors the Broncos (medium): Broncos healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs 49ers 4 out, 0 doubtful
  • Home Field Advantage favors the 49ers (high): 49ers are 2-0 at home this season; Broncos are 0-1 on the road
  • Rest Days favors the 49ers (low): 49ers has rest advantage (7 days) over Broncos (6 days)
  • Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the 49ers have 4 player(s) ruled out, while the Broncos have 2.
49ers52%

has a slight edge to win

Key Factor
Injuries
Favors DEN

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • InjuriesFavors Denver Broncos
  • Home Field AdvantageFavors San Francisco 49ers
  • Rest DaysFavors San Francisco 49ers
  • ELO RatingNeutral
  • Weather ImpactNeutral
  • Head to HeadNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

DEN
SF
Injuries
Home Field Advantage
Rest Days
ELO Rating
Favours DEN|Favours SF

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Model vs. Market

Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds

49ers

Our Model52%

Broncos

Our Model48%

Understanding the win probability calculation

Home Field Advantage

49ers are 2-0 at home this season; Broncos are 0-1 on the road

49ers

2 factors not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/4/2026, 6:45:02 PM

49ers

Mykel WilliamsDE(Knee - ACL)
OUT
Nick BosaDE(Calf)
OUT
Keion WhiteDE(Hamstring)
QUESTIONABLE
James Thompson Jr.DT(Ankle)
OUT
Jaden DuggerLB(Shoulder)
QUESTIONABLE
Dre GreenlawLB(Quadriceps)
QUESTIONABLE
Christian KirkWR(Calf)
OUT
Mike EvansWR(Ribs)
QUESTIONABLE

Broncos

Dondrea TillmanLB(Hamstring)
OUT
Jonah ColemanRB(Ankle)
OUT

Key Players

Broncos

Bo NixQB
Jarrett StidhamQB
Sam EhlingerQB
Courtland SuttonWR
Jaylen WaddleWR

49ers

Kurtis RourkeQB
Mac JonesQB
Adrian MartinezQB
Brock PurdyQB
Ricky PearsallWR

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NFL Win Probability

How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics

4 min readRead article
Deep Dive

Home Field Advantage

How playing at home affects NFL win probability

3 min readRead article
Deep Dive

NFL Weather Impact

How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions

3 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

49ers has a 52% win probability, while Broncos has a 48% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA.

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