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Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFLWeek 4 • regular • 2026
Scheduled
Buccaneers logo
Buccaneers
Tampa Bay
0
vs
Packers logo
Packers
Green Bay
0
TB 41%59% GB
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Green Bay Packers 59% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Packers:

  • Injuries. Packers less affected by injuries: 8 out, 0 doubtful vs Buccaneers 8 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Buccaneers players matter more
  • ELO Rating. Buccaneers ELO 1442 vs Packers ELO 1529 (diff: -86)
  • Rest Days. Packers has rest advantage (9 days) over Buccaneers (6 days)

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VenueRaymond James Stadium
Tampa, FL

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Packers (away)
Buccaneers (home)
59%
Win probability
41%
0
High-impact factors
0
8
Players ruled out
8

Game Preview

Packers at Buccaneers

The Packers visit the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL in NFL regular season Week 4 action.

Our model gives the Packers a 59% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. The Buccaneers will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.

Key factors driving this prediction:

  • Injuries favors the Packers (medium): Packers less affected by injuries: 8 out, 0 doubtful vs Buccaneers 8 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Buccaneers play...
  • ELO Rating favors the Packers (low): Buccaneers ELO 1442 vs Packers ELO 1529 (diff: -86)
  • Rest Days favors the Packers (medium): Packers has rest advantage (9 days) over Buccaneers (6 days)
  • Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Buccaneers have 8 player(s) ruled out, while the Packers have 8.
Packers59%

is favored to win

Key Factor
Injuries
Favors GB

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • InjuriesFavors Green Bay Packers
  • ELO RatingFavors Green Bay Packers
  • Rest DaysFavors Green Bay Packers
  • Home Field AdvantageNeutral
  • Weather ImpactNeutral
  • Head to HeadNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

GB
TB
Injuries
ELO Rating
Rest Days
Home Field Advantage
Favours GB|Favours TB

Premium feature: factor breakdown

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Model vs. Market

Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds

Buccaneers

Our Model41%

Packers

Our Model59%

Understanding the win probability calculation

2 factors not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/4/2026, 4:45:03 PM

Buccaneers

Benjamin MorrisonCB(Quadriceps)
OUT
DeMonte CapehartDT(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Luke HaggardG(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Billy SchrauthG(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Rueben Bain Jr.LB(Groin)
OUT
Baker MayfieldQB(Thumb)
OUT
Ko KieftTE(Elbow)
OUT
Jalen McMillanWR(Knee - PCL)
OUT

Packers

Jacob MonkC(Quadriceps)
OUT
Micah ParsonsDE(Knee - ACL)
OUT
Warren BrinsonDT(Calf)
OUT
Anthony CampbellDT(Ankle)
OUT
Kevin ZeitlerG(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Aaron BanksG(Toe)
OUT
Zach Bako-BeweleOT(Knee)
OUT
Jayden ReedWR(Neck)
OUT

Key Players

Packers

Kedon SlovisQB
Tyrod TaylorQB
Kyron DronesQB
Jordan LoveQB
Bo MeltonWR

Buccaneers

Jalon DanielsQB
Easton StickQB
Chandler MorrisQB
Baker MayfieldQBOUT
-7.8% win prob impact
Jake BrowningQB

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NFL Win Probability

How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics

4 min readRead article
Deep Dive

Home Field Advantage

How playing at home affects NFL win probability

3 min readRead article
Deep Dive

NFL Weather Impact

How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions

3 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Buccaneers has a 41% win probability, while Packers has a 59% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL.

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