Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Green Bay Packers 59% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Packers:
- Injuries. Packers less affected by injuries: 8 out, 0 doubtful vs Buccaneers 8 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Buccaneers players matter more
- ELO Rating. Buccaneers ELO 1442 vs Packers ELO 1529 (diff: -86)
- Rest Days. Packers has rest advantage (9 days) over Buccaneers (6 days)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Packers defeated the Buccaneers 17-14.
Our model predicted the Packers would win with 59% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Packers and was a notable factor: Packers less affected by injuries: 8 out, 0 doubtful vs Buccaneers 8 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Buccaneers play...
- ELO Rating favored the Packers and was a contributing factor: Buccaneers ELO 1442 vs Packers ELO 1529 (diff: -86)
- Rest Days favored the Packers and was a notable factor: Packers has rest advantage (9 days) over Buccaneers (6 days)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Buccaneers have 8 player(s) ruled out, while the Packers have 8.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Packers won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Green Bay Packers
- ELO RatingFavors Green Bay Packers
- Rest DaysFavors Green Bay Packers
- Home Field AdvantageNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Buccaneers
Packers
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Medium impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Packers
Buccaneers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Buccaneers has a 41% win probability, while Packers has a 59% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL.