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Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens

NFLWeek 4 • regular • 2026
Scheduled
Ravens logo
Ravens
Baltimore
0
vs
Titans logo
Titans
Tennessee
0
BAL 60%40% TEN
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Baltimore Ravens 60% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Ravens:

  • ELO Rating. Ravens ELO 1535 vs Titans ELO 1318 (diff: +217)
  • Home Field Advantage. Ravens are 0-1 at home this season; Titans are 0-1 on the road

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VenueM&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore, MD

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Titans (away)
Ravens (home)
40%
Win probability
60%
0
High-impact factors
0
8
Players ruled out
6

Game Preview

Titans at Ravens

The Titans visit the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD in NFL regular season Week 4 action.

Our model gives the Ravens a 60% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. The Titans will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.

Key factors driving this prediction:

  • ELO Rating favors the Ravens (medium): Ravens ELO 1535 vs Titans ELO 1318 (diff: +217)
  • Home Field Advantage favors the Ravens (medium): Ravens are 0-1 at home this season; Titans are 0-1 on the road
  • Injuries favors the Titans (low): Titans less affected by injuries: 8 out, 0 doubtful vs Ravens 6 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Ravens players matte...
  • Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Ravens have 6 player(s) ruled out, while the Titans have 8.
Ravens60%

is favored to win

Key Factor
ELO Rating
Favors BAL

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • ELO RatingFavors Baltimore Ravens
  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Baltimore Ravens
  • InjuriesFavors Tennessee Titans
  • Rest DaysFavors Tennessee Titans
  • Weather ImpactNeutral
  • Turnover DifferentialNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

TEN
BAL
ELO Rating
Home Field Advantage
Injuries
Rest Days
Favours TEN|Favours BAL

Premium feature: factor breakdown

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Model vs. Market

Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds

Ravens

Our Model60%

Titans

Our Model40%

Understanding the win probability calculation

2 factors not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/4/2026, 4:45:03 PM

Ravens

Ethan PocicC(Knee)
OUT
Aeneas PeeblesDT(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Jovaughn GwynG(Ankle)
OUT
Trey HendricksonLB(Finger)
OUT
Joe FagnanoQB(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Chris MooreWR(Ankle)
OUT

Titans

Jaylon JonesCB(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Jackie MarshallDT(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Fernando CarmonaG(Ankle)
OUT
Drew MossG(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Jackson SlaterG(Foot)
OUT
Brandon Crenshaw-DicksonOT(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Michael CarterRB(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Kylen GransonTE(Coach's Decision)
OUT

Key Players

Titans

Hendon HookerQB
Will LevisQB
Cam WardQB
Mitchell TrubiskyQB
K.J. OsbornWR

Ravens

Lamar JacksonQB
Diego PaviaQB
Tyler HuntleyQB
Joe FagnanoQBOUT
-7.8% win prob impact
Skylar ThompsonQB

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NFL Win Probability

How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics

4 min readRead article
Deep Dive

Home Field Advantage

How playing at home affects NFL win probability

3 min readRead article
Deep Dive

NFL Weather Impact

How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions

3 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Ravens has a 60% win probability, while Titans has a 40% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD.

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