Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals 57% to win. The biggest signal favoring Bengals:
- Home Field Advantage. Bengals are 1-0 at home this season; Jaguars are 0-1 on the road
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Jaguars defeated the Bengals 22-17.
Our model predicted the Bengals would win with 57% confidence, but the Jaguars pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Bengals and was a major factor: Bengals are 1-0 at home this season; Jaguars are 0-1 on the road
- Injuries favored the Jaguars and was a contributing factor: Jaguars healthier: 7 out, 0 doubtful vs Bengals 8 out, 0 doubtful
- ELO Rating favored the Jaguars and was a contributing factor: Bengals ELO 1527 vs Jaguars ELO 1568 (diff: -42)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Bengals have 8 player(s) ruled out, while the Jaguars have 7.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Jaguars won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Cincinnati Bengals
- InjuriesFavors Jacksonville Jaguars
- ELO RatingFavors Jacksonville Jaguars
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Bengals
Jaguars
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
Home Field Advantage
Bengals are 1-0 at home this season; Jaguars are 0-1 on the road
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Jaguars
Bengals
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Bengals has a 57% win probability, while Jaguars has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH.