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Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals

NFLWeek 4 • regular • 2026
Scheduled
Bengals logo
Bengals
Cincinnati
0
vs
Jaguars logo
Jaguars
Jacksonville
0
CIN 58%42% JAX
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Cincinnati Bengals 58% to win. The biggest signal favoring Bengals:

  • Home Field Advantage. Bengals are 1-0 at home this season; Jaguars are 0-1 on the road

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VenuePaycor Stadium
Cincinnati, OH

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Jaguars (away)
Bengals (home)
42%
Win probability
58%
0
High-impact factors
1
7
Players ruled out
8

Game Preview

Jaguars at Bengals

The Jaguars visit the Bengals at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH in NFL regular season Week 4 action.

Our model gives the Bengals a 58% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. The Jaguars will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.

Key factors driving this prediction:

  • Home Field Advantage favors the Bengals (high): Bengals are 1-0 at home this season; Jaguars are 0-1 on the road
  • Injuries favors the Jaguars (low): Jaguars healthier: 7 out, 0 doubtful vs Bengals 8 out, 0 doubtful
  • ELO Rating favors the Jaguars (low): Bengals ELO 1527 vs Jaguars ELO 1568 (diff: -42)
  • Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Bengals have 8 player(s) ruled out, while the Jaguars have 7.
Bengals58%

is favored to win

Key Factor
Home Field Advantage
Favors CIN

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Cincinnati Bengals
  • InjuriesFavors Jacksonville Jaguars
  • ELO RatingFavors Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Rest DaysNeutral
  • Weather ImpactNeutral
  • Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

JAX
CIN
Home Field Advantage
Injuries
ELO Rating
Favours JAX|Favours CIN

Premium feature: factor breakdown

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Model vs. Market

Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds

Bengals

Our Model58%

Jaguars

Our Model42%

Understanding the win probability calculation

Home Field Advantage

Bengals are 1-0 at home this season; Jaguars are 0-1 on the road

Bengals

2 factors not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/4/2026, 4:45:03 PM

Bengals

Jalen DavisCB(Hamstring)
OUT
B.J. HillDT(Achilles)
OUT
Landon RobinsonDT(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Swayze BozemanLB(Groin)
OUT
Myles HintonOT(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Kyle DuggerS(Quadriceps)
OUT
Bryan CookS(Ankle)
OUT
Colbie YoungWR(Knee)
OUT
Ja'Marr ChaseWR(Undisclosed)
QUESTIONABLE

Jaguars

Montaric BrownCB(Hamstring)
OUT
Christian BraswellCB(Knee)
OUT
Wesley WilliamsDE(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Daniel FaaleleG(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Jack KiserLB(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Jalen HuskeyS(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Caleb RansawS(Knee)
QUESTIONABLE
CJ WilliamsWR(Coach's Decision)
OUT

Key Players

Jaguars

Quinn EwersQB
Carter BradleyQB
Trevor LawrenceQB
Nick MullensQB
Joey AguilarQB

Bengals

Joe FlaccoQB
Joe BurrowQB
Josh JohnsonQB
Sean CliffordQB
Jordan MooreWR

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NFL Win Probability

How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics

4 min readRead article
Deep Dive

Home Field Advantage

How playing at home affects NFL win probability

3 min readRead article
Deep Dive

NFL Weather Impact

How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions

3 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Bengals has a 58% win probability, while Jaguars has a 42% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH.

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