New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills 71% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Bills:
- Injuries. Bills healthier: 7 out, 0 doubtful vs Patriots 9 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage. Bills are 2-0 at home this season; Patriots are 0-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating. Bills ELO 1631 vs Patriots ELO 1585 (diff: +46)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Patriots defeated the Bills 29-26.
Our model predicted the Bills would win with 71% confidence, but the Patriots pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Bills and was a major factor: Bills healthier: 7 out, 0 doubtful vs Patriots 9 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favored the Bills and was a major factor: Bills are 2-0 at home this season; Patriots are 0-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating favored the Bills and was a contributing factor: Bills ELO 1631 vs Patriots ELO 1585 (diff: +46)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Bills have 7 player(s) ruled out, while the Patriots have 9.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Patriots won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Buffalo Bills
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Buffalo Bills
- ELO RatingFavors Buffalo Bills
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Bills
Patriots
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Bills healthier: 7 out, 0 doubtful vs Patriots 9 out, 0 doubtful
Home Field Advantage
Bills are 2-0 at home this season; Patriots are 0-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Bills
Patriots
Key Players
Patriots
Bills
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Bills has a 71% win probability, while Patriots has a 29% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY.