Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Atlanta Falcons 50% to win. The biggest signal favoring Falcons:
- Injuries. Falcons healthier: 6 out, 0 doubtful vs Saints 10 out, 0 doubtful
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Falcons defeated the Saints 45-24.
Our model predicted the Falcons would win with 50% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Falcons and was a contributing factor: Falcons healthier: 6 out, 0 doubtful vs Saints 10 out, 0 doubtful
- ELO Rating favored the Saints and was a contributing factor: Saints ELO 1461 vs Falcons ELO 1417 (diff: +44)
- Home Field Advantage was neutral and a contributing factor: Saints are 0-1 at home this season; Falcons are 1-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Saints have 10 player(s) ruled out, while the Falcons have 6.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Falcons won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Atlanta Falcons
- ELO RatingFavors New Orleans Saints
- Home Field AdvantageNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Model vs. Market
Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Saints
Falcons
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Saints
Falcons
Key Players
Falcons
Saints
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Saints has a 50% win probability, while Falcons has a 50% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA.