Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Kansas City Chiefs 56% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Chiefs:
- Injuries. Chiefs healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Raiders 3 out, 0 doubtful
- ELO Rating. Raiders ELO 1415 vs Chiefs ELO 1534 (diff: -119)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Chiefs at Raiders
The Chiefs visit the Raiders at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV in NFL regular season Week 4 action.
Our model gives the Chiefs a 56% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. The Raiders will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Injuries favors the Chiefs (medium): Chiefs healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Raiders 3 out, 0 doubtful
- ELO Rating favors the Chiefs (low): Raiders ELO 1415 vs Chiefs ELO 1534 (diff: -119)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Raiders (low): Raiders are 1-0 at home this season; Chiefs are 1-0 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Raiders have 3 player(s) ruled out, while the Chiefs have 1.
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Kansas City Chiefs
- ELO RatingFavors Kansas City Chiefs
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Las Vegas Raiders
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Raiders
Chiefs
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Raiders
Chiefs
Key Players
Chiefs
Raiders
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Raiders has a 44% win probability, while Chiefs has a 56% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV.