Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Kansas City Chiefs 53% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Chiefs:
- ELO Rating. Raiders ELO 1415 vs Chiefs ELO 1534 (diff: -119)
- Injuries. Chiefs healthier: 6 out, 0 doubtful vs Raiders 7 out, 0 doubtful
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Chiefs defeated the Raiders 30-27.
Our model predicted the Chiefs would win with 53% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- ELO Rating favored the Chiefs and was a contributing factor: Raiders ELO 1415 vs Chiefs ELO 1534 (diff: -119)
- Injuries favored the Chiefs and was a contributing factor: Chiefs healthier: 6 out, 0 doubtful vs Raiders 7 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favored the Raiders and was a contributing factor: Raiders are 1-0 at home this season; Chiefs are 1-0 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Raiders have 7 player(s) ruled out, while the Chiefs have 6.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Chiefs won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Kansas City Chiefs
- InjuriesFavors Kansas City Chiefs
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Las Vegas Raiders
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Raiders
Chiefs
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Raiders
Chiefs
Key Players
Chiefs
Raiders
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Raiders has a 47% win probability, while Chiefs has a 53% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV.