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New York Jets at Chicago Bears

NFLWeek 4 • regular • 2026
Scheduled
Bears logo
Bears
Chicago
0
vs
Jets logo
Jets
New York
0
CHI 42%58% NYJ
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

New York Jets 58% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Jets:

  • Injuries. Jets healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Bears 11 out, 0 doubtful
  • Rest Days. Jets has rest advantage (7 days) over Bears (5 days)

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VenueSoldier Field
Chicago, IL

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Jets (away)
Bears (home)
58%
Win probability
42%
1
High-impact factors
0
0
Players ruled out
11

Game Preview

Jets at Bears

The Jets visit the Bears at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL in NFL regular season Week 4 action.

Our model gives the Jets a 58% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. The Bears will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.

Key factors driving this prediction:

  • Injuries favors the Jets (high): Jets healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Bears 11 out, 0 doubtful
  • ELO Rating favors the Bears (medium): Bears ELO 1531 vs Jets ELO 1403 (diff: +128)
  • Home Field Advantage favors the Bears (medium): Bears are 1-1 at home this season; Jets are 1-1 on the road
  • The Bears are without 11 player(s) due to injury, which could tilt the matchup.
Jets58%

is favored to win

Key Factor
Injuries
Favors NYJ

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • InjuriesFavors New York Jets
  • ELO RatingFavors Chicago Bears
  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Bears
  • Rest DaysFavors New York Jets
  • Recent FormNeutral
  • Head to HeadNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

NYJ
CHI
Injuries
ELO Rating
Home Field Advantage
Rest Days
Favours NYJ|Favours CHI

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Model vs. Market

Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds

Bears

Our Model42%

Jets

Our Model58%

Understanding the win probability calculation

Injuries

Jets healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Bears 11 out, 0 doubtful

Jets

2 factors not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/4/2026, 4:45:03 PM

Bears

Cam LewisCB(Hip)
OUT
Kyler GordonCB(Calf)
OUT
Jamree KromahDE(Coach's Decision)
OUT
James LynchDT(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Shemar TurnerDT(Knee - ACL)
OUT
Jayden LovingDT(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Noah SewellLB(Achilles)
OUT
Braxton JonesOT(Knee)
OUT
Ozzy TrapiloOT(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Caleb WilliamsQB(Hamstring)
OUT
Anthony Johnson Jr.S(Undisclosed)
OUT

Jets

No injuries reported

Key Players

Jets

No player data available

Bears

Miller MossQB
Tyson BagentQB
Case KeenumQB
Caleb WilliamsQBOUT
0.0% win prob impact
Zavion ThomasWR

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NFL Win Probability

How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics

4 min readRead article
Deep Dive

Home Field Advantage

How playing at home affects NFL win probability

3 min readRead article
Deep Dive

NFL Weather Impact

How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions

3 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Bears has a 42% win probability, while Jets has a 58% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL.

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