San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks 51% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Seahawks:
- Home Field Advantage. Seahawks are 2-0 at home this season; 49ers are 1-0 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating. Seahawks ELO 1661 vs 49ers ELO 1596 (diff: +65)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The 49ers defeated the Seahawks 32-29.
Our model predicted the Seahawks would win with 51% confidence, but the 49ers pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the 49ers and was a notable factor: 49ers healthier: 7 out, 0 doubtful vs Seahawks 8 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favored the Seahawks and was a contributing factor: Seahawks are 2-0 at home this season; 49ers are 1-0 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating favored the Seahawks and was a contributing factor: Seahawks ELO 1661 vs 49ers ELO 1596 (diff: +65)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Seahawks have 8 player(s) ruled out, while the 49ers have 7.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
49ers won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors San Francisco 49ers
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Seattle Seahawks
- ELO RatingFavors Seattle Seahawks
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Seahawks
49ers
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Seahawks
49ers
Key Players
49ers
Seahawks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Seahawks has a 51% win probability, while 49ers has a 49% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Lumen Field in Seattle, WA.