NFL week 5 report card (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
64.3%
hit rate
0.229
Brier score
9 of 14 decided · 1 tie
Season to date
54.1%
hit rate
0.252
Brier score
33 of 61 decided · 1 tie
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Bills at RamsLAR 65.5% pre-kickoff — final LAR 34–BUF 37
- Buccaneers at CowboysDAL 58.2% pre-kickoff — final DAL 16–TB 24
- 49ers at SeahawksSEA 51.3% pre-kickoff — final SEA 29–SF 32
- Colts at SteelersIND 51.0% pre-kickoff — final PIT 34–IND 22
- Texans at TitansTEN 50.7% pre-kickoff — final TEN 3–HOU 26
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Browns at JetsNYJ 65.9% pre-kickoff — final NYJ 17–CLE 12
- Ravens at FalconsBAL 60.7% pre-kickoff — final ATL 23–BAL 30
- Raiders at PatriotsNE 59.4% pre-kickoff — final NE 45–LV 17
- Eagles at JaguarsJAX 59.4% pre-kickoff — final JAX 19–PHI 17
- Bears at PackersGB 58.1% pre-kickoff — final GB 31–CHI 7
| Game | Pre-kickoff | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers at Cowboys Fri, Oct 9 | DAL 58.2% · TB 41.8% | DAL 16–TB 24 | Miss |
| Eagles at Jaguars Sun, Oct 11 | JAX 59.4% · PHI 40.6% | JAX 19–PHI 17 | Hit |
| Texans at Titans Sun, Oct 11 | TEN 50.7% · HOU 49.3% | TEN 3–HOU 26 | Miss |
| Bengals at Dolphins Sun, Oct 11 | MIA 44.0% · CIN 56.0% | MIA 24–CIN 31 | Hit |
| Raiders at Patriots Sun, Oct 11 | NE 59.4% · LV 40.6% | NE 45–LV 17 | Hit |
| Vikings at Saints Sun, Oct 11 | NO 49.3% · MIN 50.7% | NO 13–MIN 23 | Hit |
| Bears at Packers Sun, Oct 11 | GB 58.1% · CHI 41.9% | GB 31–CHI 7 | Hit |
| Colts at Steelers Sun, Oct 11 | PIT 49.0% · IND 51.0% | PIT 34–IND 22 | Miss |
| Giants at Commanders Sun, Oct 11 | WSH 51.5% · NYG 48.5% | WSH 27–NYG 27 | Tie |
| Browns at Jets Sun, Oct 11 | NYJ 65.9% · CLE 34.1% | NYJ 17–CLE 12 | Hit |
| Broncos at Chargers Sun, Oct 11 | LAC 45.6% · DEN 54.4% | LAC 17–DEN 23 | Hit |
| 49ers at Seahawks Sun, Oct 11 | SEA 51.3% · SF 48.7% | SEA 29–SF 32 | Miss |
| Lions at Cardinals Sun, Oct 11 | ARI 48.6% · DET 51.4% | ARI 21–DET 45 | Hit |
| Ravens at Falcons Mon, Oct 12 | ATL 39.3% · BAL 60.7% | ATL 23–BAL 30 | Hit |
| Bills at Rams Tue, Oct 13 | LAR 65.5% · BUF 34.5% | LAR 34–BUF 37 | Miss |
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