Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
New England Patriots 61% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Patriots:
- ELO Rating. Patriots ELO 1585 vs Raiders ELO 1415 (diff: +170)
- Home Field Advantage. Patriots are 1-0 at home this season; Raiders are 2-0 on the road
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Raiders at Patriots
The Raiders visit the Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA in NFL regular season Week 5 action.
Our model gives the Patriots a 61% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. The Raiders will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Patriots (medium): Patriots ELO 1585 vs Raiders ELO 1415 (diff: +170)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Patriots (medium): Patriots are 1-0 at home this season; Raiders are 2-0 on the road
- Rest Days favors the Raiders (low): Raiders has rest advantage (13 days) over Patriots (14 days)
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors New England Patriots
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New England Patriots
- Rest DaysFavors Las Vegas Raiders
- Recent FormNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Patriots
Raiders
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Raiders
Patriots
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Patriots has a 61% win probability, while Raiders has a 39% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA.