Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
New England Patriots 60% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Patriots:
- ELO Rating. Patriots ELO 1585 vs Raiders ELO 1415 (diff: +170)
- Home Field Advantage. Patriots are 1-0 at home this season; Raiders are 2-0 on the road
- Rest Days. Patriots has rest advantage (7 days) over Raiders (6 days)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Patriots defeated the Raiders 45-17.
Our model predicted the Patriots would win with 60% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- ELO Rating favored the Patriots and was a notable factor: Patriots ELO 1585 vs Raiders ELO 1415 (diff: +170)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Patriots and was a notable factor: Patriots are 1-0 at home this season; Raiders are 2-0 on the road
- Injuries favored the Raiders and was a contributing factor: Raiders healthier: 8 out, 0 doubtful vs Patriots 9 out, 0 doubtful
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Patriots have 9 player(s) ruled out, while the Raiders have 8.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Patriots won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors New England Patriots
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New England Patriots
- InjuriesFavors Las Vegas Raiders
- Rest DaysFavors New England Patriots
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Patriots
Raiders
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Patriots
Raiders
Key Players
Raiders
Patriots
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Patriots has a 60% win probability, while Raiders has a 40% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA.