Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars 59% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Jaguars:
- Home Field Advantage. Jaguars are 2-0 at home this season; Eagles are 1-1 on the road
- Injuries. Jaguars less affected by injuries: 7 out, 0 doubtful vs Eagles 7 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Eagles players matter more
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Jaguars defeated the Eagles 19-17.
Our model predicted the Jaguars would win with 59% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Jaguars and was a notable factor: Jaguars are 2-0 at home this season; Eagles are 1-1 on the road
- Injuries favored the Jaguars and was a contributing factor: Jaguars less affected by injuries: 7 out, 0 doubtful vs Eagles 7 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Eagles players matt...
- ELO Rating was neutral and a contributing factor: Jaguars ELO 1568 vs Eagles ELO 1582 (diff: -14)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Jaguars have 7 player(s) ruled out, while the Eagles have 7.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Jaguars won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Jacksonville Jaguars
- InjuriesFavors Jacksonville Jaguars
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Jaguars
Eagles
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Jaguars
Eagles
Key Players
Eagles
Jaguars
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Jaguars has a 59% win probability, while Eagles has a 41% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.