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New York Giants at Washington Commanders

NFLWeek 5 • regular • 2026
Scheduled
Commanders logo
Commanders
Washington
0
vs
Giants logo
Giants
New York
0
WSH 59%41% NYG
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Washington Commanders 59% to win. The biggest signal favoring Commanders:

  • Home Field Advantage. Commanders are 1-0 at home this season; Giants are 0-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)

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VenueNorthwest Stadium
Landover, MD

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Giants (away)
Commanders (home)
41%
Win probability
59%
0
High-impact factors
1
0
Players ruled out
7

Game Preview

Giants at Commanders

The Giants visit the Commanders at Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD in NFL regular season Week 5 action.

Our model gives the Commanders a 59% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. The Giants will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.

Key factors driving this prediction:

  • Home Field Advantage favors the Commanders (high): Commanders are 1-0 at home this season; Giants are 0-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
  • ELO Rating is neutral: Commanders ELO 1424 vs Giants ELO 1414 (diff: +11)
  • Defensive Efficiency is neutral: Defensive efficiency stats not yet available
Commanders59%

is favored to win

Key Factor
Home Field Advantage
Favors WSH

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Washington Commanders
  • ELO RatingNeutral
  • Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
  • Turnover DifferentialNeutral
  • Head to HeadNeutral
  • InjuriesNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

NYG
WSH
Home Field Advantage
ELO Rating
Favours NYG|Favours WSH

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Model vs. Market

Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds

Commanders

Our Model59%

Giants

Our Model41%

Understanding the win probability calculation

Home Field Advantage

Commanders are 1-0 at home this season; Giants are 0-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)

Commanders

2 factors not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/4/2026, 8:00:03 AM

Commanders

Charles OmenihuDE(Groin)
QUESTIONABLE
Sam CosmiG(Concussion)
OUT
Javontae Jean-BaptisteLB(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Marcus MariotaQB(Knee - MCL)
DOUBTFUL
Jayden DanielsQB(Elbow)
OUT
Rachaad WhiteRB(Shoulder)
OUT
Nick CrossS(Illness)
OUT
Jeremy ReavesS(Finger)
QUESTIONABLE
Tyler OwensS(Hamstring)
QUESTIONABLE
Jaylin LaneWR(Ankle)
DOUBTFUL
Luke McCaffreyWR(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Terry McLaurinWR(Hamstring)
OUT

Giants

No injuries reported

Key Players

Giants

Jake HaenerQB
Brandon AllenQB
J.J. McCarthyQB
Jameis WinstonQB
Jaxson DartQB

Commanders

Marcus MariotaQBDOUBTFUL
Sam HartmanQB
Athan KaliakmanisQB
Jayden DanielsQBOUT
0.0% win prob impact
Antonio WilliamsWR

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NFL Win Probability

How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics

4 min readRead article
Deep Dive

Home Field Advantage

How playing at home affects NFL win probability

3 min readRead article
Deep Dive

NFL Weather Impact

How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions

3 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Commanders has a 59% win probability, while Giants has a 41% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD.

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