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Cleveland Browns at New York Jets

NFLWeek 5 • regular • 2026
completed
Jets logo
Jets
New York
17
vs
Browns logo
Browns
Cleveland
12
NYJ 66%34% CLE
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

New York Jets 66% to win. The biggest signal favoring Jets:

  • Injuries. Jets healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Browns 10 out, 0 doubtful

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VenueMetLife Stadium
East Rutherford, NJ

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Browns (away)
Jets (home)
34%
Win probability
66%
0
High-impact factors
1
10
Players ruled out
0

Post-Game Analysis

How our model performed

The Jets defeated the Browns 17-12.

Our model predicted the Jets would win with 66% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.

Looking at the factors our model weighed:

  • Injuries favored the Jets and was a major factor: Jets healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Browns 10 out, 0 doubtful
  • Rest Days favored the Browns and was a contributing factor: Browns has rest advantage (9 days) over Jets (7 days)
  • ELO Rating was neutral and a contributing factor: Jets ELO 1403 vs Browns ELO 1422 (diff: -19)
  • The Browns are without 10 player(s) due to injury, which could tilt the matchup.

This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.

Jets won 17-12

Jets won by a solid margin

Prediction CorrectWe predicted Jets at 66%

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • InjuriesFavors New York Jets
  • Rest DaysFavors Cleveland Browns
  • ELO RatingNeutral
  • Home Field AdvantageNeutral
  • Weather ImpactNeutral
  • Turnover DifferentialNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

CLE
NYJ
Injuries
Rest Days
ELO Rating
Home Field Advantage
Favours CLE|Favours NYJ

Premium feature: factor breakdown

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Model vs. Market

Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds

Jets

Our Model66%

Browns

Our Model34%

Understanding the win probability calculation

Injuries

Jets healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Browns 10 out, 0 doubtful

Jets

2 factors not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/12/2026, 8:00:01 AM

Jets

No injuries reported

Browns

Parker BrailsfordC(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Mike Hall Jr.DT(Ankle)
OUT
Kalia DavisDT(Quadriceps)
OUT
Mason GrahamDT(Knee - MCL)
OUT
Teven JenkinsG(Back)
OUT
Dillon GabrielQB(Back)
OUT
Taylen GreenQB(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Carsen RyanTE(Calf)
OUT
Tylan WallaceWR(Knee)
OUT
KC ConcepcionWR(Head)
OUT

Key Players

Browns

Shedeur SandersQB
Dillon GabrielQBOUT
0.0% win prob impact
Deshaun WatsonQB
Taylen GreenQBOUT
0.0% win prob impact
Malachi CorleyWR

Jets

No player data available

Frequently Asked Questions

Jets has a 66% win probability, while Browns has a 34% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ.

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