Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens 61% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Ravens:
- Injuries. Ravens less affected by injuries: 8 out, 0 doubtful vs Falcons 8 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Falcons players matter more
- ELO Rating. Falcons ELO 1417 vs Ravens ELO 1535 (diff: -119)
- Home Field Advantage. Falcons are 0-1 at home this season; Ravens are 2-0 on the road
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Ravens defeated the Falcons 30-23.
Our model predicted the Ravens would win with 61% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Ravens and was a notable factor: Ravens less affected by injuries: 8 out, 0 doubtful vs Falcons 8 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Falcons players mat...
- ELO Rating favored the Ravens and was a contributing factor: Falcons ELO 1417 vs Ravens ELO 1535 (diff: -119)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Ravens and was a contributing factor: Falcons are 0-1 at home this season; Ravens are 2-0 on the road
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Falcons have 8 player(s) ruled out, while the Ravens have 8.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Ravens won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Baltimore Ravens
- ELO RatingFavors Baltimore Ravens
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Baltimore Ravens
- Rest DaysFavors Baltimore Ravens
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Falcons
Ravens
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Falcons
Ravens
Key Players
Ravens
Falcons
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Falcons has a 39% win probability, while Ravens has a 61% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA.