Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
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Bears at Packers
The Bears visit the Packers at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI in NFL regular season Week 5 action.
Our model gives the Bears a 50% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. The Packers will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Bears (low): Packers are 0-1 at home this season; Bears are 1-0 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating is neutral: Packers ELO 1529 vs Bears ELO 1531 (diff: -2)
- Turnover Differential is neutral: Packers turnover differential (+0) vs Bears (+0)
has a slight edge to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Bears
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Packers
Bears
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Bears
Packers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Packers has a 50% win probability, while Bears has a 50% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI.