Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers 57% to win. The biggest signal favoring Packers:
- Injuries. Packers healthier: 8 out, 0 doubtful vs Bears 9 out, 0 doubtful
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Packers defeated the Bears 31-7.
Our model predicted the Packers would win with 57% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Packers and was a notable factor: Packers healthier: 8 out, 0 doubtful vs Bears 9 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favored the Bears and was a contributing factor: Packers are 0-1 at home this season; Bears are 1-0 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating was neutral and a contributing factor: Packers ELO 1529 vs Bears ELO 1531 (diff: -2)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Packers have 8 player(s) ruled out, while the Bears have 9.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Packers won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Green Bay Packers
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Bears
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Packers
Bears
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Packers
Bears
Key Players
Bears
Packers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Packers has a 57% win probability, while Bears has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI.