Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

NFLWeek 5 • regular • 2026

Scheduled

Chargers

Los Angeles

Broncos

Denver

LAC 47%54% DEN

Prediction Confidence:

Moderate

Denver Broncos 54% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Broncos:

ELO Rating. Chargers ELO 1478 vs Broncos ELO 1598 (diff: -119)
Injuries. Broncos less affected by injuries: 1 out, 2 doubtful vs Chargers 3 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Chargers players matter more

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VenueSoFi Stadium

Inglewood, CA

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Broncos (away)

Chargers (home)

54%

Win probability

47%

High-impact factors

Players ruled out

Game Preview

Broncos at Chargers

The Broncos visit the Chargers at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA in NFL regular season Week 5 action.

Our model gives the Broncos a 54% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. The Chargers will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.

Key factors driving this prediction:

ELO Rating favors the Broncos (low): Chargers ELO 1478 vs Broncos ELO 1598 (diff: -119)
Injuries favors the Broncos (low): Broncos less affected by injuries: 1 out, 2 doubtful vs Chargers 3 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Chargers players ...
Home Field Advantage favors the Chargers (low): Chargers are 0-2 at home this season; Broncos are 0-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Chargers have 3 player(s) ruled out, while the Broncos have 1.

Broncos54%

has a slight edge to win

Key Factor

ELO Rating

Favors DEN

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

ELO RatingFavors Denver Broncos
InjuriesFavors Denver Broncos
Home Field AdvantageFavors Los Angeles Chargers
Head to HeadNeutral
Weather ImpactNeutral
Offensive EfficiencyNeutral

What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

DEN

LAC

ELO Rating

Injuries

Home Field Advantage

Favours DEN|Favours LAC

Premium feature: factor breakdown

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Model vs. Market

Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds

Chargers

Our Model47%

Broncos

Our Model54%

Understanding the win probability calculation

Team Performance

Low impactHow team performanceworks →

3 factors

Offensive Efficiency

Offensive efficiency stats not yet available

Neutral

Turnover Differential

Chargers turnover differential (+0) vs Broncos (+0)

Neutral

Defensive Efficiency

Defensive efficiency stats not yet available

Neutral

Injuries & Personnel

Low impactHow injuries & personnelworks →

1 factor

Injuries

Broncos less affected by injuries: 1 out, 2 doubtful vs Chargers 3 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Chargers players matter more

Broncos

Home & Venue

Low impactHow home & venueworks →

1 factor

Home Field Advantage

Chargers are 0-2 at home this season; Broncos are 0-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)

Chargers

Rest & Schedule

Low impact

1 factor

Rest Days

Similar rest: Chargers (6 days) vs Broncos (6 days)

Neutral

Historical

Low impactHow historicalworks →

1 factor

Head to Head

No recent head-to-head history available

Neutral

Other

Low impact

1 factor

ELO Rating

Chargers ELO 1478 vs Broncos ELO 1598 (diff: -119)

Broncos

2 factors not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/7/2026, 8:00:02 AM

Injury Report

Chargers

Donte JacksonCB(Hamstring)

QUESTIONABLE

Cam HartCB(Knee)

QUESTIONABLE

Dalvin TomlinsonDT(Hamstring)

QUESTIONABLE

Scott MatlockFB(Undisclosed)

OUT

Alec IngoldFB(Shoulder)

QUESTIONABLE

Branson TaylorG(Undisclosed)

OUT

Kayode AwosikaG(Lower Leg)

QUESTIONABLE

Trevor PenningG(Concussion)

QUESTIONABLE

Rashawn SlaterOT(Ankle)

OUT

Joe AltOT(Neck)

QUESTIONABLE

Trey LanceQB(Groin)

QUESTIONABLE

Derwin James Jr.S(Hamstring)

QUESTIONABLE

Charlie KolarTE(Forearm)

QUESTIONABLE

Ladd McConkeyWR(Foot)

QUESTIONABLE

Brenen ThompsonWR(Quadriceps)

QUESTIONABLE

Quentin JohnstonWR(Chest)

QUESTIONABLE

Broncos

Pat Surtain IICB(Ankle)

DOUBTFUL

Riley MossCB(Ribs)

QUESTIONABLE

Dondrea TillmanLB(Hamstring)

QUESTIONABLE

Jonah ColemanRB(Ankle)

OUT

Adam TrautmanTE(Shoulder)

QUESTIONABLE

Pat BryantWR(Ankle)

DOUBTFUL

Key Players

Broncos

Jarrett StidhamQB

Sam EhlingerQB

Bo NixQB

Kolbe KatsisWR

Dane KeyWR

Chargers

Trey LanceQBQUESTIONABLE

Justin HerbertQB

DJ UiagaleleiQB

Quentin JohnstonWRQUESTIONABLE

Gary JenningsWR

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NFL Win Probability

How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics

4 min readRead article

Deep Dive

Home Field Advantage

How playing at home affects NFL win probability

3 min readRead article

Deep Dive

NFL Weather Impact

How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions

3 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Chargers has a 47% win probability, while Broncos has a 54% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA.

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