Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
Indianapolis Colts 51% to win. The biggest signal favoring Colts:
- Injuries. Colts healthier: 7 out, 0 doubtful vs Steelers 10 out, 0 doubtful
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Steelers defeated the Colts 34-22.
Our model predicted the Colts would win with 51% confidence, but the Steelers pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Colts and was a major factor: Colts healthier: 7 out, 0 doubtful vs Steelers 10 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favored the Steelers and was a notable factor: Steelers are 2-0 at home this season; Colts are 1-1 on the road
- ELO Rating favored the Steelers and was a contributing factor: Steelers ELO 1517 vs Colts ELO 1431 (diff: +86)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Steelers have 10 player(s) ruled out, while the Colts have 7.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Steelers won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Indianapolis Colts
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Pittsburgh Steelers
- ELO RatingFavors Pittsburgh Steelers
- Rest DaysFavors Pittsburgh Steelers
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Steelers
Colts
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Colts healthier: 7 out, 0 doubtful vs Steelers 10 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Steelers
Colts
Key Players
Colts
Steelers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Steelers has a 49% win probability, while Colts has a 51% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA.