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Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

NFLWeek 5 • regular • 2026
Scheduled
Steelers logo
Steelers
Pittsburgh
0
vs
Colts logo
Colts
Indianapolis
0
PIT 49%51% IND
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Indianapolis Colts 51% to win. The biggest signal favoring Colts:

  • Injuries. Colts healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Steelers 6 out, 0 doubtful

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VenueAcrisure Stadium
Pittsburgh, PA

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Colts (away)
Steelers (home)
51%
Win probability
49%
1
High-impact factors
1
8
Players ruled out
6

Game Preview

Colts at Steelers

The Colts visit the Steelers at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA in NFL regular season Week 5 action.

Our model gives the Colts a 51% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. The Steelers will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.

Key factors driving this prediction:

  • Injuries favors the Colts (high): Colts healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Steelers 6 out, 0 doubtful
  • Home Field Advantage favors the Steelers (high): Steelers are 2-0 at home this season; Colts are 0-1 on the road
  • ELO Rating favors the Steelers (low): Steelers ELO 1517 vs Colts ELO 1431 (diff: +86)
  • The Steelers are without 6 player(s) due to injury, which could tilt the matchup.
Colts51%

has a slight edge to win

Key Factor
Injuries
Favors IND

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • InjuriesFavors Indianapolis Colts
  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Pittsburgh Steelers
  • ELO RatingFavors Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Rest DaysFavors Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Turnover DifferentialNeutral
  • Head to HeadNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

IND
PIT
Injuries
Home Field Advantage
ELO Rating
Rest Days
Favours IND|Favours PIT

Premium feature: factor breakdown

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Understanding the win probability calculation

Injuries

Colts healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Steelers 6 out, 0 doubtful

Colts

Home Field Advantage

Steelers are 2-0 at home this season; Colts are 0-1 on the road

Steelers

2 factors not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/4/2026, 8:00:04 AM

Steelers

Jamel DeanCB(Ankle)
DOUBTFUL
Gabriel RubioDE(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Derrick HarmonDT(Foot)
DOUBTFUL
Kevin Jobity Jr.DT(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Drew AllarQB(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Will HowardQB(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Rico DowdleRB(Toe)
OUT
Eli HeidenreichRB(Coach's Decision)
OUT

Colts

Micheal ClemonsDE(Toe)
OUT
Dalton TuckerG(Coach's Decision)
OUT
George Gumbs Jr.LB(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Riley LeonardQB(Coach's Decision)
OUT
DJ GiddensRB(Coach's Decision)
OUT
Keenan AllenWR(Groin)
OUT
Alec PierceWR(Heel)
OUT
Darius SlaytonWR(Coach's Decision)
OUT

Key Players

Colts

Anthony Richardson Sr.QB
Seth HeniganQB
Daniel JonesQB
Riley LeonardQBOUT
-8.1% win prob impact
Sahmir HagansWR

Steelers

Drew AllarQBOUT
-8.1% win prob impact
Mason RudolphQB
Will HowardQBOUT
-8.1% win prob impact
Aaron RodgersQB
Isaiah HodginsWR

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NFL Win Probability

How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics

4 min readRead article
Deep Dive

Home Field Advantage

How playing at home affects NFL win probability

3 min readRead article
Deep Dive

NFL Weather Impact

How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions

3 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Steelers has a 49% win probability, while Colts has a 51% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA.

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