NFL season projections by the PlayDecoded model
2026 season. Remaining regular-season games are simulated from the model's current team-strength ratings.
How the projection is computed
Each remaining regular-season game is simulated 10,000times. The home team's win chance uses the model's latest Elo team-strength rating plus the sport's standard home adjustment. A team with no rating yet is treated as 1500, the model default. Ratings stay fixed for the run. Preseason, exhibition, and postseason games are excluded. The table shows each team's current record, the mean projected final win total, the 10th–90th percentile range across those runs, and the share of runs in which the team finished with the most wins in its division. Ties for first in a division are split equally. The same ratings appear on the NFL power rankings. Computed October 25, 2026 from 10,000 runs.
AFC East
| Team | Record | Projected wins | 10th–90th | Division finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5-1 | 12.2 | 10.0–14.0 | 83.3% |
 | 4-3 | 10.0 | 8.0–12.0 | 16.5% |
 | 2-4 | 5.9 | 4.0–8.0 | 0.2% |
 | 0-5 | 4.1 | 2.0–6.0 | 0.0% |
AFC North
| Team | Record | Projected wins | 10th–90th | Division finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3-2 | 10.2 | 8.0–12.0 | 35.6% |
 | 4-2 | 10.0 | 8.0–12.0 | 31.2% |
 | 4-2 | 9.6 | 8.0–12.0 | 22.4% |
 | 4-2 | 8.8 | 7.0–11.0 | 10.8% |
AFC South
| Team | Record | Projected wins | 10th–90th | Division finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4-2 | 11.0 | 9.0–13.0 | 85.0% |
 | 2-4 | 8.4 | 6.0–10.0 | 12.5% |
 | 2-4 | 6.6 | 5.0–9.0 | 2.4% |
 | 1-5 | 4.0 | 2.0–6.0 | 0.0% |
AFC West
| Team | Record | Projected wins | 10th–90th | Division finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4-2 | 11.2 | 9.0–13.0 | 52.9% |
 | 5-0 | 11.0 | 9.0–13.0 | 45.9% |
 | 3-3 | 7.1 | 5.0–9.0 | 1.2% |
 | 0-6 | 4.9 | 3.0–7.0 | 0.0% |
NFC East
| Team | Record | Projected wins | 10th–90th | Division finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 2-4 | 9.0 | 7.0–11.0 | 68.8% |
 | 2-4 | 6.9 | 5.0–9.0 | 14.9% |
 | 3-2-1 | 6.8 | 5.0–9.0 | 12.4% |
 | 1-4-1 | 5.6 | 4.0–8.0 | 3.9% |
NFC North
| Team | Record | Projected wins | 10th–90th | Division finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5-0 | 12.6 | 11.0–15.0 | 73.5% |
 | 3-2 | 9.9 | 8.0–12.0 | 11.3% |
 | 5-2 | 9.9 | 8.0–12.0 | 8.7% |
 | 4-2 | 9.5 | 7.0–12.0 | 6.4% |
NFC South
| Team | Record | Projected wins | 10th–90th | Division finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3-2 | 8.1 | 6.0–10.0 | 48.3% |
 | 2-4 | 7.5 | 5.0–10.0 | 31.0% |
 | 2-4 | 6.4 | 4.0–8.0 | 12.3% |
 | 1-5 | 5.8 | 4.0–8.0 | 8.3% |
NFC West
| Team | Record | Projected wins | 10th–90th | Division finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6-0 | 12.8 | 11.0–15.0 | 79.9% |
 | 3-3 | 10.8 | 9.0–13.0 | 18.5% |
 | 2-4 | 8.2 | 6.0–10.0 | 1.5% |
 | 2-4 | 6.2 | 4.0–8.0 | 0.1% |